a regime survives as long as its coercive apparatus keeps both the capacity and the will to repress, and four things set those, the fiscal health of the forces, their international support networks, whether they are professional or built on patronage, and how many people are in the streets.

source

Regime Fragility in the United States: What the Comparative Literature Measures and What the Next Two Years Test

Two-thirds of the dictators in Milan Svolik's data fell to their own insiders. The two years to Jan. 20, 2029 are where this regime's insiders decide.

cmarmitage.substack.com